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Appointment Trends Analysis

There is an increasing trend for more patients in the NHS network. Using our SARIMA Model with national categories dataset, filtered for general practise and care related events, the average GP practise could see a 7% increase to number of appointments per month.

GP Work Patterns and Wellbeing

Our analysis shows a marginal 2% increase in GP Full Time Equivalent (FTE) over the period analysed (Sep 2022 to May 2024), accompanied by a 1.02% increase in average GP appointments over the respective time period. However, these figures may not tell the complete story of GP workload and wellbeing.

According to a recent report by the General Medical Council (GMC), published in August 2024:

"Nearly half (48%) of GPs are struggling and consistently have worse experiences than others since the report began in 2019."

The report highlights that more doctors are taking steps to protect their wellbeing:

• 19% of doctors reduced their hours in 2023, up from 8% in 2021
• 41% declined to take on additional work in 2023, compared to 23% in 2021
• 23% took a leave of absence due to stress in the previous year

Charlie Massey, Chief Executive of the GMC, stated:

"We must be clear that doctors protecting their wellbeing is essential, but they shouldn't feel their only option is to reduce their working hours."

These findings suggest that while the overall FTE numbers show a slight increase, there may be underlying issues affecting GP workload and wellbeing that aren't captured by FTE and appointment numbers alone. Further analysis in this area could provide valuable insights into the challenges facing primary care services.

Source: Struggling doctors are cutting hours to safeguard their wellbeing, GMC warns

GP Utilisation Analysis Methodology

The GP Utilisation rate is calculated based on guidance from professional bodies and actual appointment data:

1. Maximum recommended patients per day: 25 (as per British Medical Association guidance)
2. Calculation of maximum appointments per month: FTE x Working Days/Month x 25 patients per day
3. Utilisation rate: Actual GP appointments / Maximum appointments

The red line on the chart represents 100% utilisation (25 patients/day).

Key considerations from the BMA guidance:

• The BMA recommends limiting clinical contacts to no more than 25 per day for each GP to maintain safe working practices.
• Exceeding this limit may impact decision-making capacity and patient safety.
• When safe clinical capacity is reached, practices are advised to use appropriate care navigation or signposting to other services.

Source: BMA - Safe working in general practice